Thinking in Bets

NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result in “the ultimate guide to thinking about risk” (Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit).
 
“A big favorite among investors these days.”—The New York Times

“Outstanding.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

Standard and Primary covers are widely available through general retailers. They often have higher print runs and can be cheaper, especially during sales.

In contrast, Direct Market (DM) and variant covers are primarily sold in comic shops. DM editions tend to have more limited availability and may be more valuable to collectors.

The main differences lie in artwork style, availability, price, and collector appeal. Ultimately, the choice between standard and variant covers depends on personal preference, budget, and individual collecting goals.

Comic book enthusiasts have various formats to choose from when collecting their favorite stories.
Here's a brief overview of the main types:

Omnibus

• Large, hardcover collections
• Usually contain complete runs or extensive story arcs
• Typically 800-1000+ pages
• Higher price point, often €100-€150

Oversized Hardcover (OHC)

• Similar dimensions to omnibus, but thinner
• Collect shorter runs or story arcs
• Usually 300-600 pages
• Priced between €30-€50

Hardcover (HC)

• Standard-sized hardcover books
• Collect 6-12 issues typically
• Similar dimensions to single issues, but with a hard cover
• Priced around €25-€35

Trade Paperback (TP)

• Softcover collections
• Standard comic book size
• Usually collect 4-6 issues
• Most affordable option, typically €15-€25

Other Formats

• Absolute Editions: Oversized, deluxe hardcovers (mainly DC Comics)
• Compendiums: Massive paperback collections
• Graphic Novels (OGN/GN): Original stories not previously released as single issues

The choice between these formats often depends on personal preference, budget, and collecting goals. Omnibus and OHC editions offer larger artwork and more content but at a higher price, while TPs provide a more affordable way to collect complete story arcs